Sunday's NFL Week 3 Betting Preview

9/22/2013

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NFL Week 3 Cheat Sheet and Betting Trends & Analysis

Sunday NFL Football Betting
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 45)

Star receiver Andre Johnson suffered a concussion in the game against the Titans but is expected to be cleared to play. Johnson is tied for the NFL lead with 20 receptions and Houston appears to have found a sensational complement in first-round pick DeAndre Hopkins (12 receptions, 183 yards).

Baltimore has a key player ailing in running back Ray Rice, who injured his left hip flexor in the contest against Cleveland and hasn’t participated in practices. “He’s not going to need the practice to play in the game,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said.

LINE: Houston opened -2.5 and moved to -1.5. Total moved from 44.5 to 45.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (-5.0) - Baltimore (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Ravens +1
WEATHER: Temperatures mid 70s, partly cloudy, winds NNW 11 mph.
TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
* Texans are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games.
* Ravens are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (+1, 46.5)

New York's 10 turnovers - seven of which have been Eli Manning interceptions - are a major cause for concern and have put the defense in a tough spot. The offense has been effective at moving the ball, mostly through the air, and ranks fifth in the league in total yards, but the ground game has to come along and the Giants need to hang onto the ball.

The Panthers find themselves in an 0-2 hole after losing their first two games by a combined six points, including a 24-23 defeat against Buffalo last week. The Panthers have been balanced on offense but they've been far from explosive, ranking 27th in the league with 280.5 total yards per game.

LINE: Carolina opened -1 and moved to +1. Total moved from 45.5 to 47.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: New York (-1.0) + Carolina (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers +1
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, 22 percent chance of early showers, winds 5 north 5 mph.
TRENDS:

* Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (Pick, 48.5)

Detroit is 2-0 against Washington under coach Jim Schwartz, with both victories coming at home. Calvin Johnson had 101 yards and three touchdowns in a 37-25 triumph over the Redskins in their last meeting on Oct. 31, 2010.

Facing a large deficit, the Redskins have been offensive juggernauts in the fourth quarter, outscoring Philadelphia and Green Bay by a combined 26-0 over the final 15 minutes.

LINE: Open pick bounced between -1 and +1. Total moved from 48 to 49.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (+1.0) - Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins -1.5
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, partly cloudy skies, winds NNW 12 mph.
TRENDS:

* Under is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings.
* Home team is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Lions are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Washington.

San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3, 43.5)

Philip Rivers leads a rejuvenated offense that is averaging more than 30 points per game. The only problem: San Diego has allowed as many points as it has scored, thanks to a defense that has surrendered the most passing yards in the league through two weeks.

The Tennessee Titans' defense has helped compensate for a sluggish offense through the first two games of the season. Titans RB Chris Johnson comes into the week ranked sixth in rushing yards (166) but second in attempts (50), averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.

LINE: Opened Tennessee -1 and moved to -3. Total steady at 43.5.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (+2.0) - Tennessee (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans -2
WEATHER: Temps mid 70s, clear skies, winds NNE 7 mph.
TRENDS:

* Chargers are 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9, 49)

Carson Palmer has injected some life into Arizona's passing game, but the ground game hasn't been as effective and running back Rashard Mendenhall (toe) is questionable. Palmer should have tight end Rob Housler back in the lineup after missing the first two games with a sore ankle, and the Cardinals have eased receiver Larry Fitzgerald along in practice in hopes he can play through a hamstring injury.

While the Saints' offense has struggled to find the end zone, coordinator Rob Ryan's revamped defense has limited its first two opponents to 320 yards and 15.5 points per game. The overhauled defense did a solid job against Atlanta in Week 1 but was dominant in a 16-14 win versus Tampa Bay, allowing 273 total yards - the Saints' lowest total since Week 15 of the 2011 season.

LINE: Arizona opened -9.5 and moved to -7. Total moved from 48.5 to 49.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+3.5) + New Orleans (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -9.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last four meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (-8.5, 43.5)

Quarterback Josh Freeman is under siege after consecutive subpar outings - he was only 9-for-22 for 125 yards with one touchdown and one interception against the Saints - to spark speculation that he could lose his starting job to rookie Mike Glennon. The Buccaneers have dangerous weapons in second-year running back Doug Martin (209 yards rushing) and wideout Vincent Jackson (231 yards receiving), and the defense has been stout in allowing an average of 17 points.

With wideout Danny Amendola (groin) and running back Shane Vereen (wrist) set to miss a second straight game and tight end Rob Gronkowski still rehabbing from multiple offseason surgeries, Tom Brady has been forced to lean on Julian Edelman (20 receptions) and untested rookies in the receiving corps. Starting running back Steven Ridley has rushed for only 86 yards in two games while the defense has forced six turnovers to tie for second in the league.

LINE: Open New England -7 and moved to -8.5. Total moved from 45 to 43.5.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.0) + New England (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -11.5
WEATHER: Temps low 70s, 83 percent chance of rain, winds WSW 7 mph.
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Over is 7-3 in Patriots' last 10 home games.

Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5, 49)

While Aaron Rodgers' Week 2 performance was typical, the Packers got a surprising 132-yard effort on the ground from running back James Starks, who replaced Eddie Lacy after the rookie left the game with a concussion. The Packers were forced to juggle their secondary last week after three DBs suffered hamstring injuries. All are questionable for Sunday.

Cincinnati has won the past two meetings against Green Bay and sacked Rodgers six times in its most recent game (2009) but it will be without veteran defensive end Robert Geathers who joined three Bengal linebackers on injured reserve. While questions still abound on Andy Dalton's deep passing ability, he has thrown for 280 and 282 yards in his first two starts and unveiled a new weapon in athletic rookie tight end Tyler Eifert on Monday.

LINE: Cincinnati opened +1 and moved to +2.5. Total moved from 46.5 to 49.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals +1.5
WEATHER: Temps high 60s, clear skies, winds NNE 6 mph.
TRENDS:

* Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Bengals are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games in Week 3.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers last six games overall.

St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

St. Louis is attempting to start 2-1 for the first time since 2006. The Rams will look for more consistency out of high-priced free agent signing Jared Cook, who caught seven passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns in Week 1 but managed only one grab last weekend.

The last time the Cowboys faced the Rams, DeMarco Murray rushed for a franchise-record 253 yards on Oct. 23, 2011. However, Murray only managed 25 yards on 12 attempts in last week's loss to the Chiefs, a game in which Dallas was unable to force any turnovers after creating six miscues against the New York Giants in Week 1.

LINE: Dallas steady at -3.5. Total moved from 46.5 to 47.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+2.5) + Dallas (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -3
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Rams are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Cowboys are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games.

Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (-6.5, 40.5)

Cleveland was already struggling to produce offense with just 16 points in two games and trading RB Trent Richardson, who recorded 950 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns as a rookie, gives an offense starting a third-string quarterback even fewer options. Brian Hoyer starts in place of Brandon Weeden, who injured his thumb in last week's loss to Baltimore.

Vikings quarterback Christian Ponder, who was 16-of-30 against Chicago, is reportedly on the hot seat and could lose snaps to backup Matt Cassel unless his play improves. Ponder is 88-for-127 passing with five touchdowns and two interceptions in his last four games against AFC opponents.

LINE: Minnesota opened -4 and moved to -6.5. Total moved from 41 to 40.5.
PRIME WAGERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+5.0) - Minnesota (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Vikings -5.5
WEATHER: N/A
TRENDS:

* Browns are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Vikings are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Under is 5-1 in Browns last six road games.
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Bruins vs. Blackhawks - Stanley Cup Finals Game 5 Preview

6/22/2013

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Stanley Cup Finals turns into a best of 3 and some tough questions that will decide who will take the lead in Game 5

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Following up the wildest Stanley Cup Final game in quite a while is a hell of a task, but the coaches of the Chicago Blackhawks and Boston Bruins are probably okay with not trying to top it in Game 5.After two days off, the Bruins and Blackhawks reconvene in Chicago for what is now a best-of-three for the right to hoist the Stanley Cup. The two teams are coming off a Game 4 in which 11 goals were scored, 80 shots were put on goal and nearly 70 minutes were played. These two teams probably could have used the rest, and the hope is that you'll see a couple of recharged teams, at least defensively and in net.

A lot of people are suggesting that Corey Crawford needs to be better, and that he got exposed during Game 4, in
which he was particularly weak on his glove side. That is true, but let's not forget: Tuukka Rask also played in that game, and gave up six goals of his own. Sure, he faced 14 more shots (47 to 33) than Crawford did, and some are bound to be out of his control, but regardless, the best goaltender in the postseason gave up six in a Stanley Cup Final game. That is borderline shocking.

The winner of this series is going to be the team that doesn't bother trying to get into a track meet like we did on
Wednesday. Five goals were scored in the second period, and everyone just kept playing catch-up.That's not how you win a playoff series, especially not the Stanley Cup Final. The Bruins and Blackhawks need to return to a disciplined
defensive game. The loser of the series will likely have not completely done that.

Winning Game 5 is not exactly a guarantee of ultimate victory. It gives you a better chance of winning the Stanley Cup, for sure, but the numbers aren't as overwhelming as you'd think. The winner of Game 5 in a 2-2 series wins the Stanley Cup 68 percent of the time. While that is a two to one shot, you'd think it'd be even higher, wouldn't you? A 32 percent chance of taking two in a row isn't exactly the worst odds you could give one of these two clubs.

Which goaltender rebounds?
Like I said, both goaltenders need to  rebound, but perhaps there was a little too much negative attention paid Corey Crawford's performance. Tuukka Rask will almost definitely never play a worse game on a big stage like that, and most likely neither will Crawford. But Crawford can't afford another bad game, because a legitimate
replacement in Ray Emery sits on the bench. At what point does he become an option? The two goalies in this series have fully emerged in the spotlight as far as the narrative goes, and will they now likely be the ones who decide the series.

Are Toews and Kane starting something?
Lost in the 11-goal shuffle on Wednesday night was that Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane both managed to score
goals. For Kane, it was his first of the series and first since his hat trick in Game 5 of the Western Conference Final. For Toews, it was just his second goal in 21 games of postseason action. Toews has been excellent defensively, so his play gets a bit of a reprieve. Both players, however, must be hoping that this is a sign of things to come.

Can the Bruins defense return to stifling hockey?
Let's face it: if the Blackhawks have solved the Bruins defensive scheme, this series is over. Wednesday night proved,
once and for all, that the Hawks are the better team to run and gun, and the Bruins just can't keep up. The Bruins have their defensive system for a reason: for most of the postseason it worked, stopping some of the best offensive players on the planet. On Wednesday night, the Bruins gave up as many goals as they did in their four second round wins over the New York Rangers, total. That can't happen again if Boston wants a second Stanley Cup in three years.

Will the debut of Forward Carl Soderberg help the Bruins?
Forward Carl Soderberg appears poised to make his playoff debut for the Boston Bruins. The Boston Globe reports Soderberg subbed in for Kaspars Daugavins on the Bruins' fourth line (alongside Rich Peverley and Shawn Thornton) for the majority of Friday’s practice.
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Stanley Cup Finals Game 4 Recap - Lessons learned

6/20/2013

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Five things learned in the Chicago Blackhawks' 6-5 overtime win over the Boston Bruins in Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final last night

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BLACKHAWKS BOUNCE BACK

The Blackhawks had plenty to celebrate after splitting two games in Boston. Chicago will host Game 5 on Saturday with the series tied at 2 instead of being in a 3-1 hole. The Blackhawks also atoned for their listless performance in a 2-0 loss in Game 3 on Monday. Chicago had six shots on goalie Tuukka Rask before the Bruins had any. The Blackhawks also came out hitting and never let up, showing grit that was lacking in the previous game. While the Bruins rallied to
tie it three different times, the Blackhawks never trailed. "They keep coming. They're a hard-working team. They have skill on all their lines," Chicago coach Joel Quennville said. "They have a mobile and active D. They have big shots. Defensively you're always going to get challenged and tested. But I thought we did a better job of our offense putting some pressure on their D."
 
 


OT AGAIN

Maybe the 48-game lockout-shortened schedule was a good thing, because the
postseason is getting stretched to the max. Last night's game was the 27th
overtime game of this year's playoffs, one short of the record set in 1993. That
was also the last time three games in the finals went beyond regulation, with
Montreal taking all three while beating Wayne Gretzky and the Los Angeles Kings.
"It's exciting. Everybody worked so hard tonight. Everybody's worked so hard
through the playoffs," said Brent Seabrook, who scored on a slap shot 9:51 into
OT. "We're all contributing. It doesn't matter if I score or anybody else
scores, it's nice to get the win and move on to the next day." The Blackhawks
are 5-2 in OT during the playoffs and the Bruins are 5-3, losing for the first
time in an OT game in Boston in these playoffs.
 
RASK ROUGHED

Boston goalie Tuukka Rask's remarkable postseason run stalled, and his shutout
streak of more than 129 minutes was long forgotten by the time it was over. Rask
had allowed seven goals over the previous seven games before the Blackhawks
cracked him in the largest offensive outburst of the series. Chicago had just
five goals in the series entering Game 4, and the teams had combined for just 12
before striking for 11 yesterday. The final one came on Seabrook's slap shot as
captain Jonathan Toews provided a bulky screen in front of Rask as the puck got
past him and tucked inside the far post. "We were just around the net. We were
getting inside and found the rebounds," said Toews, who had gone 10 games
without a goal before he scored early in the second to put Chicago up 2-1. "Ugly
goals, we don't care. We'll find a way. It's something we need to keep doing."
Boston coach Claude Julien did not blame Rask for the loss in his postgame
comments, but didn't exactly rush to his goalie's defense, either. "I don't
evaluate the players publicly here," Julien said. "I look at our whole team and
tell you our whole team was average. You can take what you want from that. I
think we can be a lot better. We have an opportunity to be better next game.
Hopefully, if anything, that makes us even hungrier."  
 
NO GLOVE
 
The Bruins made it a long night for Chicago goalie Corey Crawford as well,
finding a vulnerable spot on his glove side and targeting it all game. All five
of Boston's goals were to Crawford's glove side, and the Bruins tested him there
one final time in OT on a snap shot by Rich Peverley. Crawford juggled the puck
slightly, but held on to it and forced a faceoff. Seabrook scored 19 seconds
later and Crawford had another win in the finals despite allowing five goals.
"Corey has been great for us all year, all playoffs. He just moves forward,"
coach Joel Quenneville said. "Commend him. We got the win. You know, he'll be
fine."

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Bruins scored a pair of power-play goals, the Blackhawks scored once while a
man up and another down a man as special teams finally were a factor. The
Blackhawks were scoreless in 11 power plays through the first three games and
mired in a 0-for-29 drought before Patrick Sharp scored to put Chicago up 5-4
with 9:41 left in regulation. The goal came just after a 5-on-3 advantage for
Chicago expired, but before Boston's Jaromir Jagr could get from the penalty box
into the play. The Bruins had killed 27 straight penalties entering the game. 
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